Friday, May 08, 2015

Have I become a techno-optimist?

Working in the tech industry, I often feel like a fish out of water. I'm usually surrounded by people who are even more enthusiastic about technology than the general populace. It's not that I'm anti-tech - it's just that I don't think technology is the answer to all of our problems. Or to put it another way, any individual piece of technology may be positive, negative or neutral, and which one may depend on your perspective. 

For example, chemical pesticides could be seen as a positive by a farmer using them, but negative if you are one of the critters being killed directly or indirectly. Likewise, something that seems like a good idea initially like using the CFC Freon as a safe refrigerant, becomes a terrible idea with the benefit of hindsight and additional knowledge of its role in damaging the ozone layer.

My viewpoint on technology has sometimes been mistaken for cynicism but I don't think that's accurate. It's just that I'm a little less "gung-ho" and a little more skeptical about each new technological advance or proposal. Which is to say I agree with the general theme of Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology, and the Fate of the Nation - our faith in technological fixes will not save us from the reality that awaits. At least not in the long run.

Having said that, I must admit that I'm at least a little bit excited and hopeful about the Tesla Powerwall. It's going to be fascinating to see just what impact it will eventually have. Are wall mounted lithium-ion batteries going to become ubiquitous in the modern home? Or in the developing world? Will it transform consumer energy usage in unpredictable ways? Will it kill off numerous businesses and spawn new ones in the process? Maybe not overnight, or in the first generation of devices. Eventually however, I actually think the chances of it doing all of that are fair to good - and that's from someone who tends to be a bit of a doomer :) 

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